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PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO /OR/ (POR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $1.00 modestly beat S&P Global consensus ($0.99*) while GAAP EPS was $0.94; revenue of $0.952B missed consensus ($0.984B*) as stronger load was offset by power cost normalization and higher D&A/interest expense [functions.GetEstimates]*.
  • Industrial/data center-led growth remained the core driver: total load +5.5% YoY (+7.3% weather-adjusted) and industrial +13% YoY in Q3; management raised 2025 weather-adjusted load growth to 3.5%-4.5% (from 2.5%-3.5%) and reaffirmed adjusted EPS guidance of $3.13–$3.33 .
  • Regulatory milestone: OPUC order for Seaside BESS yields ~$42M annual revenue requirement (9.34% ROE) and is in rates Oct 31, 2025; constructive outcome de-risks recovery while an earnings test caps excess returns .
  • Near-term catalysts: finalization of 2023 RFP contracts by YE 2025/Q1 2026 (over 1 GW solar + storage shortlisted), potential data center tariff in March that could expand margins, and continued AI-enabled capacity unlocks (80 MW near-term) via GridCARE partnership .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Data center and high-tech demand sustained: “industrial customers ... grew their energy usage by over 13%,” supporting total load +5.5% YoY (+7.3% WA) in Q3 and an updated 2025 load growth outlook of 3.5%-4.5% .
    • Constructive regulatory outcomes: Seaside ARM approved with ~$42M annual revenue requirement, 9.34% ROE, and inclusion in rates 10/31; MOU-driven approach mirrors Seaside in the pending Distribution System Plan ARM .
    • Cost control and execution: O&M savings added ~$0.06 to EPS vs Q3’24; non-GAAP EPS of $1.00 excludes $0.06 of business transformation and optimization costs as PGE executes its affordability program .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Revenue miss vs Street: $952M vs $984M consensus* (≈−3.2%); power cost normalization and mix offset higher volumes (net variable power costs were a headwind in the bridge) [functions.GetEstimates]*.
    • Higher depreciation/interest from rate base growth: D&A and financing reduced EPS by ~$0.23 vs Q3’24 as capital plan scales .
    • Lower PTC benefits lifted tax expense YoY, partially offsetting operational gains (press release notes lower production tax credits) .

Financial Results

Quarterly performance vs prior periods (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$929 $807 $952
Net Income ($USD Millions)$94 $62 $103
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)$0.90 $0.56 $0.94
Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) ($)N/A$0.66 $1.00
EBIT Margin %15.93%*14.75%*18.38%*
Net Income Margin %10.12%*7.68%*10.82%*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Q3 2025 actual vs S&P Global consensus

MetricConsensus*ActualSurprise ($)Surprise (%)# Estimates
Revenue ($USD Millions)$983.83*$952 −$31.83−3.2%3*
Primary EPS ($)$0.987*$1.00 +$0.013+1.3%11*

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key operating KPIs (Q3 YoY unless noted):

  • Total load +5.5% YoY; +7.3% weather-adjusted .
  • Industrial load +13.0% YoY (data centers/semis); residential +2.2% headline (+6.7% WA); commercial +1.3% headline (+1.9% WA) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q2 2025)Current Guidance (Q3 2025)Change
Adjusted EPSFY 2025$3.13–$3.33 $3.13–$3.33 Maintained
Load Growth (weather-adjusted)FY 20252.5%–3.5% 3.5%–4.5% Raised
O&M ExpenseFY 2025$795–$815M (incl. ~$135M offsets) $810–$830M (incl. ~$135M offsets; ~$30M transformation) Raised
D&A ExpenseFY 2025$550–$575M $550–$575M Maintained
Effective Tax RateFY 202515%–20% 15%–20% Maintained
Cash from OperationsFY 2025$900–$1,000M $950–$1,050M Raised
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$1,215M $1,220M Slightly Raised
Avg. CWIPFY 2025$595M $575M Lowered
DividendNext payable$0.525/sh (declared Jul) $0.525/sh (payable by Jan 15, 2026; rec 12/22/25) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Load/data centersQ1: strong high-tech/data center demand; Q2: industrial +16.5% QoQ, reaffirmed 3% LT load growth Total load +5.5% YoY; industrial +13% YoY; 2025 WA load raised to 3.5%–4.5% Accelerating near term, LT 3% maintained
Regulatory: Seaside/DSPQ2 filed Seaside/DSP recovery with MOU approach Seaside ARM approved: ~$42M rev req, 9.34% ROE, in rates 10/31; DSP ARM guided by MOU Constructive outcomes
Corporate structure (HoldCo/TransCo)Q2 filed HoldCo/TransCo to enhance financing flexibility Considering separating approvals (HoldCo earlier); could displace some equity needs Increasing optionality
Resource procurement (RFPs)2023 RFP pricing refresh; contracts 2H25; 2025 RFP launched Updated shortlist; expect final contracts YE 2025/Q1 2026; >1 GW solar + BESS; 2025 RFP evaluation underway Execution phase
Power costs/marketsQ1 noted lower purchased power costs; Q2 bridge showed NVPC impacts Bridge shows NVPC headwind; pursuing CAISO day-ahead market go-live Oct next year Transition to broader market
Tax credits monetizationOngoing ITC/PTC benefits cited >$1B PTC/ITC secured; ~$150M monetized YTD; ~+$50M/yr baseline PTC cash flows Strategic tailwind
AI/technology initiativesGridCARE launch noted externally [20/May press coverage not required]80 MW unlocked; AI analytics + dynamic line ratings to accelerate interconnections Scaling impact

Management Commentary

  • Strategic focus: “We are working to procure energy to meet dramatically higher customer demand under our rigorous least-cost, least-risk approach,” while maximizing federal clean energy tax credits to lower customer costs .
  • Demand and affordability: “We are serving significant demand growth and executing our cost management program with discipline,” with total load +5.5% YoY and industrial +13% YoY in Q3 .
  • Regulatory/financing: “The order [Seaside] represents a constructive outcome...” and HoldCo could “displace certain equity needs” under the right scenarios as RFP outcomes are finalized .
  • Capital plan and liquidity: “Total liquidity at the end of Q3 was just over $1 billion,” with CFO-to-debt above 20% and completed ATM activity to cover 2025 base equity needs .
  • Resource procurement: “Over 1 gigawatt of solar and battery projects on the updated final shortlist... projects will be in service by the end of 2027” .

Notable quotes:

  • “To date, we have secured over $1 billion of PTCs and ITCs for our own clean energy portfolio, and we estimate as much as another $1 billion from long-term third-party energy contracts.”
  • “In Q4, we expect the continued impacts of load growth, moderately favorable power cost, CapEx-supported financing, and benefits from our cost management work.”

Q&A Highlights

  • HoldCo/TransCo timing: Management may separate approvals, prioritizing earlier HoldCo approval; expected to enhance financing flexibility and potentially displace future equity needs .
  • RFP scale/timing: 2023 RFP >1 GW solar+BESS; 2025 RFP likely more “meaningful and robust” as system needs approach ~4 GW by decade-end per IRP action plan; contracts expected YE 2025/Q1 2026 and 2H 2026 respectively .
  • Data center tariff/margins: New tariff expected around March; could improve margin allocation from fastest-growing customers and balance costs across classes .
  • Power cost recovery evolution: Dialogues ongoing on RCE/PCAM; joining CAISO day-ahead market in Oct next year may change optimal recovery mechanism .
  • Regulatory lag: Management targets compression to ~70 bps of lag via mechanisms (e.g., Seaside ARM) and cost management, with potential further improvement in 2026 .
  • Tax credit monetization: ~$150M ITC monetized YTD; baseline annual PTC cash flows around ~$50M, with ITCs arriving cyclically as projects enter service .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: EPS $1.00 vs $0.987* (beat); Revenue $952M vs $984M* (miss). Estimate counts: EPS (11), Revenue (3)* [functions.GetEstimates]*.
  • Implications: Reaffirmed EPS range and higher 2025 load growth suggest FY EPS consensus likely remains within guidance while Street may adjust near-term revenue/power cost mix assumptions; a potential 2026 uplift could come from the data center tariff if approved as expected .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Load-led story intact: Industrial/data center growth is translating to higher volumes and raised 2025 load guidance (3.5%–4.5%), with LT load CAGR of ~3% reiterated .
  • Regulatory de-risking: Seaside ARM in rates with defined returns and earnings test provides visibility; DSP ARM follows the MOU template, supporting further lag compression .
  • EPS durability despite mix: Modest EPS beat vs consensus alongside a revenue miss underscores effective cost controls and power cost management within a capex/financing upcycle [functions.GetEstimates]*.
  • Capital plan/financing: >$1B liquidity, CFO/debt >20%, ATM settled for base 2025 needs; HoldCo formation could expand financing pathways and reduce future equity needs tied to RFP ownership .
  • Procurement catalysts: 2023 RFP contracting by YE 2025/Q1 2026 and 2025 RFP shortlist in Q1 2026 set up incremental rate base growth into 2027 .
  • AI-enabled capacity unlock: 80 MW incremental near-term capacity (Hillsboro) with >400 MW by 2029 supports earlier interconnections and system affordability .
  • Watch items: Power cost normalization and higher D&A/interest remain EPS headwinds; monitor CAISO day-ahead market integration (Oct next year) and data center tariff decision (target March) for margin trajectory .

Citations:

  • Q3 2025 press release and 8-K:
  • Earnings slides:
  • Earnings call transcript:
  • Seaside ARM 8-K (Other Events):
  • Prior quarters (trend/previous guidance): Q2 2025 8-K/press release ; Q1 2025 8-K/press release
  • GridCARE press release:

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.